Complex Systems, Simple Answers

The universe we occupy is a very complex system that contains an uncountable number of complex systems within itself. One of the most common illustrations of this fact is weather forecasting. Weather forecasts are notorious for being inaccurate. The reason for this isn't because the weatherman is incompetent, it's because weather is a complex system. Edward Norton Lorenz, a meteorologist who founded chaos theory, noted the complexity of weather systems through the butterfly effect:

He noted that the butterfly effect is derived from the example of the details of a tornado (the exact time of formation, the exact path taken) being influenced by minor perturbations such as a distant butterfly flapping its wings several weeks earlier.

The terrestrial weather system isn't the only complex system. Space weather is a thing and a great deal of effort is put into predicting it. Like predicting terrestrial weather, predicting space weather is notoriously inaccurate. A few other complex systems are the movement of tectonic plates, propagation of electromagnetic radiation, and human behavior.

The human brain prefers simple answers. Prescientific man often explained complex phenomenon like weather as the action of gods and other supernatural beings. A typhoon wiping out a coastal city might be explained as the god of the sea punishing the inhabitants because they did something he didn't like. Postscientific man isn't that different. Although our scientific understanding has largely done away with accusing the gods for all that happens, we still end up creating simple answers for complex systems.

This comes up most frequently when people try to blame an individual or group for events that are the result of complex systems. Crime rates are a good example. Many factors play into crime rates. Socioeconomic conditions are the most commonly cited factors, but there are many more. The laws themselves play a huge role because an act isn't a crime unless there's a law against it. If the government passes a law against an until then lawful and very common activity (see Prohibition in the United States), the rate of crime increases. Weather plays a factor in crime rates. Cities in the northern hemisphere typically have a higher rate of violent crime during the summer. Individual attitudes are a major factor. If there is a large number of people who are unhappy with their current conditions, they are more likely to perform criminal acts such as vandalism. Many people ignore all of these factors and instead blame crime rates on blacks or immigrants and call it a day.

Political systems are also complex. A political system involves many people acting in the name of a government. These government vary from dictatorships to democracies. Different systems have different numbers of participants. The laws that get passed depend on a number of factors. Consider the legislative process in a common democratic system. A law might be introduced by a politician on behalf of a lobbyist. The lobbyist may want the law passed to prevent new competitors from entering their market. The politician might received benefits from the lobbyist ranging from paid vacations to promises of employment after they exit politics. Another law might be introduced because a politician sees people participating in activities they personally find immoral (again, see Prohibition in the United States). Once a law is introduced, there is a complex system of wheeling and dealing that commonly happens before the law is either rejected or passed into law. Many people ignore all of these factors and instead blame one political party for all the political ills in their country. Or they might blame the Jews or, more recently, British royalty (a new conspiracy theory gaining headway here in the United States).

What is an answer that doesn't correctly answer a question? It's bullshit. This provides some incite into why all of the perceived ills in the world seem to go unaddressed. Too many people have opted for bullshit rather than answers. But don't be too harsh of those people. We humans aren't well adapted to analyzing and addressing complex systems. All of us opt for bullshit. Some of us opt for it more than others, but we all do it. We especially do it when an answer can't be identified. Our brains prefer simple answers and absolutely despise having no answers. When an individual accumulates too many questions without answers they often succumb to some form of nihilism, but that's not the only option.

If you're willing to accept the fact that there are many questions without answers and come to peace with that fact, you can live in a sort of harmony. Many religions and philosophies exist around this idea. Stoicism emphasizes that you cannot control things outside of yourself but you can control how you react to events. Even though I cannot control who rules the nation, I can prevent myself from become emotional because of it. You don't have to be angry because you don't like the ruler of a nation. Daoism is centered on the Dao, the source of all existence. Critically Daoism teaches that the Dao is beyond our comprehension and therefore cannot be completely understood. This is a good frame of mind when living in a universe full of unanswerable questions. Accepting that you cannot fully comprehend events that are happening can help avoid falling under the influence of those who claim to have the answer and therefore from being manipulated by them.

I can't say for certain what will make you happy in life. I will say that my life became happier once I accepted that I don't know the answer to everything. That acceptance has allowed me to achieve peace by not getting worked up over things outside of my control. I know the universe is composed of complex systems that are incomprehensible to me and I enjoy that there is mystery in this universe. I live my life how I want and care not at all about the opinions of others. They don't know the answers either. I strongly urge you to explore the same frame of mind and see if it bring you peace too.